Jim Rogers is a successful international investor and traveler, and the author of a number of books. Together with he created the Quantum Foundation. He is the founder of Rogers Holdings and Beeland Interests, the author of the RICI (Rogers International Commodities Index) and TRSIDXR (Rogers Global Resources Equity Index) indices. Jim Rogers often comments on the current situation in the markets and the economy and shares his ideas. His statements and comments are quoted by leading international publications.

Jim Rogers biography and investment activity

Jim Rogers (full name James Beeland Rogers Jr. - James Beeland Rogers, Jr.) was born October 19, 1942 in Baltimore, Maryland, USA. He spent his childhood in Demopolis, Alabama. In 1964 he graduated from Yale University (studied history) and began working for Dominick & Dominick. In 1966, Jim Rogers graduated from Balliol College, Oxford University, where he studied philosophy, politics and economics.

From 1970, Jim Rogers worked at the investment bank Arnhold and S. Bleichroder, where George Soros worked at the same time. In 1973, Jim Rogers and George Soros founded the legendary hedge fund Quantum. Over 10 years, the Quantum fund has shown an incredible growth of 4200%; for comparison, the growth of the S&P index over the same period was less than 50%.

In 1980, Jim Rogers made the decision to leave the Quantum Foundation. His further investment activities are primarily related to the management of his own capital. Since leaving the foundation, he has taught finance at Columbia University's Graduate School of Business and has also contributed to business channels' The Dreyfus Roundtable and The Profit Motive with Jim Rogers.

In 1990, Jim Rogers embarked on a journey that was included in the Guinness Book of Records: he traveled more than 160,000 km on a motorcycle in 52 countries. During the adventure, he simultaneously analyzed what was happening around: a look at many countries from the inside became an additional source of investment ideas. Based on the journey, Jim Rogers wrote his first book, Investment Biker: Around the World with Jim Rogers.

In 1998, Jim Rogers created his own commodity index - RICI (Rogers International Commodities Index). Later, an ETF was created based on the index.

In January 1999, Jim Rogers, along with his wife, went on another long journey, included in the Guinness Book of Records. For 3 years, on a car specially modified for this purpose, they drove 245,000 km in 116 countries. After returning to New York, Jim Rogers wrote a book about this trip, The Ultimate Road Trip: Adventure Capitalist.

In 2004, another book by Jim Rogers, Hot Commodities: How Anyone Can Invest Profitably in the World's Best Market, was published. The book has been translated into Russian under the title Commodity Exchanges. The hottest markets in the world. How everyone can invest and make a profit.” In this book, the author shares his view of commodity markets, calling them the easiest investment tool (we are talking about long-term investments, not short-term transactions).

In 2007, Jim Rogers and his family moved from New York to Singapore. The main motive for the move was the prospect of Asia in terms of economic development in the medium term. In an interview, Jim Rogers said that if you are smart, then in 1807 you should have moved to London, in 1907 you should have moved to New York, and in 2007 you should have moved to Asia. It should be noted that Jim Rogers does not consider the entire Asian region promising. For example, he is very skeptical about India. In the same year, he published another book - "A Bull in China: Investing Profitably in the World's Greatest Market".

In 2009, Jim Rogers released a book that he dedicated to his daughters, A Gift to My Children: A Father's Lessons For Life And Investing. In Russian translation, the book was called “Make your children successful. Parenting advice from one of the world's most influential investors."

In 2012, Rogers launched a new index, the Rogers Global Resources Equity Index. According to Jim Rogers, the index includes only the best and most liquid companies from what he believes to be promising sectors.

In 2013, Jim Rogers released a book in which he combined his life experiences, shared his latest ideas and brought together key points from previous works. In the original (in English) the book was called “Street Smarts: Adventures on the Road and in the Markets”, the title in Russian translation is “The future through the eyes of one of the most influential investors in the world. Why Asia will become dominant, Russia has a good chance, while Europe and America continue to fall.

In his interviews, Jim Rogers often emphasizes that he is skeptical about the financial sector, saying that the era of Wall Street is coming to an end. In his opinion, the industries associated with the production of real products, especially agriculture, are promising. He likes to say that in the future it will be the farmers who will drive the Lamborghini.

New global financial crisis will happen in 2018, American investor believes Jim Rogers, owner of Rogers Holdings and former partner of Dorge Soros.

“In 2018, a crisis will come around the world, people will be scared, they will invest their money in dollars, because the dollar is considered to be a protective asset. The dollar will soar very high, turn into a "bubble" and collapse. And when the dollar starts to collapse, everyone will want to get out of it and invest in other assets - rubles, yuan, gold, and so on.

Rogers said in an interview with RNS at SPIEF 2017.

The crisis can come from anywhere in the world, and the "new Lehman Brothers" can be a European or Chinese financial institution, he believes. In Europe, for example, the Greek economy may finally collapse. In China, the authorities have promised not to bail out bankrupt companies, which will come as a huge shock to the world. And in the US, pension funds can play the role of a trigger, for example. "The payouts don't actually stop, but the funds are technically running out of money, and you'll see leading pension funds in the US get in trouble," says Rogers.

Signs of an impending crisis
There has been talk of a new crisis for several years now.

“Not only do I agree with Jim Rogers, but I myself regularly warn of the approaching global financial crisis, which in its scale is capable of surpassing the cataclysm of 2008-2009”

Global FX Investment Analyst Says Sergey Korobkov.

What factors indicate that the world is on the verge of new financial shocks? First, the extremely low level of volatility in stock markets. The VIX volatility indicator, or fear index, ended last week at an all-time low of 9.75 points. “The VIX did not fall so low either before the collapse of the famous “dotcom boom” at the turn of the millennium (1999-2000), or before the bankruptcy of the deceased Lehman Brothers, which became the trigger for the global financial crisis of 2008-2009. It seems that there are no fears left in the market. This is an extremely dangerous condition,” says Sergei Korobkov.

Also of concern is margin debt in the US stock market, which is money that brokers have lent to investors to buy securities. This is such a unique opportunity to trade capital that is larger than the real one. And in recent years, investors have become too lean on it, the bubble can burst at any moment. Margin debt increased by 230% since 2013, over the past year - more than 20% , and reached $549.2 billion. "This is a new historical record, exceeding the peak values ​​before the 2008-2009 crisis by more than $100 billion," Korobkov notes.

There is also concern about the Buffett indicator, which shows the relationship between stock market capitalization and US GDP. Now this ratio is $25 trillion against 19 trillion. “That is, the current value of the stock market is 133% more than the size of the economy. According to Warren Buffett’s calculations, this is an overbought issuer. For comparison, on the eve of the previous financial crash of 2008-2009, the Buffett indicator showed only 110.7%,” says Korobkov.

Another sign is the fall of almost all commodity assets since the end of the first quarter. "Oil quotes have fallen by more than 15%, non-ferrous metals have fallen in the range of 10-15%, iron ore prices have sank by 10% over the past three months. Usually this picture precedes a recession in the economy," the expert from Global FX points out.

“If we look at the economic cycles of Kondratiev, we are approaching the peak phase of growth. It is worth mentioning the cyclicality of the S&P500 index, which on average showed a decline every eight years. And now it has been growing for the ninth year in a row.”

Indicates Ivan Kapustyansky from Forex Optimum.

Where will the trouble come from
According to economic theory, the onset of a crisis is inevitable. The only question is when it will happen and what will be its source. This is what causes heated discussion among economists.

It is more likely that the "black swan" will arrive from China, where there is a bubble in the financial market, Korobkov said. The size of the financial sector in China has reached $35 trillion which is three times the country's GDP. In addition, China's debts are rising against the background of a clearly oversupply in real estate and in the commodity market. Thus, the debt of companies, financial structures and regions exceeds $20 trillion, and the volume of bad debts exceeds $1.5 trillion.

"Chinese developers cannot sell already built housing, which could accommodate more than 20 million people. No more than 30% of apartments are sold in new buildings," the expert says. The same is true for commercial real estate. For example, the largest hypermarket in the world, built in the south of China, managed to find tenants on only 2% of its space. "The Chinese bubble will burst under pressure from rising US dollar borrowing costs," warns Korobkov.

In this regard, the US Federal Reserve is pursuing a disastrous policy for the Celestial Empire. After all, an increase in the discount rate leads to an increase in the cost of loans and to an increase in the cost of debt. And China will have to spend much more on their maintenance.

Even Moody's downgraded China's sovereign credit rating for the first time since 1989. The IMF also warned that Chinese debt, which rose to 253% GDP poses a threat to global financial stability.

However, the leading analyst at TeleTrade Group of Companies Anastasia Ignatenko says that in 2016, seven more countries had a debt above 100% of GDP (including Japan (211%), Italy (136%) , Spain (100%) , Belgium (109%) , Singapore (108%) , Greece (176%) , Portugal (129%) and two countries - under 100%: the USA and France. “So, objectively, there are much more threats, but the truth is that the economies of China and America are collectively larger than many others, and therefore their impact on the external economy in case of problems will be much more destructive,” says Ignatenko. “But I’m sure that this is understood and the heads of states themselves and the heads of their Central Banks, and they are able to anticipate these events and minimize the negative effect."

And yet, most experts believe that a new financial crisis next year will not happen. It is unlikely that Europe will become a catalyst for the crisis, since the people in power in Europe's largest economies - Germany, Italy, France - are not ready to allow even a hint of the collapse of the European Union, Nord-Capital experts say. In Europe, the appearance of a "black swan" is also unlikely due to the ECB's ultra-soft policy, Korobkov adds.

China's financial system is indeed in a bubble. "However, the monetary and political authorities of China have repeatedly demonstrated by their actions their readiness to support financial institutions with long-term liquidity injections," Nord Capital does not believe in the Chinese scenario. The main risk there is still considered too rapid start of raising rates by the Fed.

“It is very unlikely that the shares of the largest American companies will suddenly collapse. Today, an additional risk factor has appeared - Trump's unpredictable policies, but there are many airbags here too - in the form of Congress and American laws.

Agree First Vice President of the Russian Club of Financial Directors Tamara Kasyanova.

Of course, if you sum up all the problems in Europe, the US, Latin America and China, then the crisis does not seem so unlikely. "It would seem that the risks for the global financial system are increasing every year, as the level of its complexity increases," Kasyanova says.

“But at the same time, the overall level of decentralization of the financial system is also growing. If earlier a blow to one important point could become crushing for the system, today a simultaneous series of blows to many important points is needed. While the distributed system is in its infancy and works only in certain areas of life , but in the near future it will dominate everywhere, then the risks for the world global financial system will decrease," Kasyanova sums up.

James Beeland Rogers, Jr. is an American investor, co-founder of the Quantum Fund, is a college professor, author, economic commentator, and creator commodity index Rogers International Commodities Index (RICI).

Jim B. Rogers was born October 19, 1942 in Baltimore, Maryland. He attended Yale and then Oxford where he studied politics, philosophy and economics. In the summer of 1964, while working at Dominick & Dominick, Jim Rogers really got into what was happening on Wall Street and "dipped head first" into the financial world. It was here that he returned after graduating from Oxford and serving in the army. In the early 1970s, after gaining experience at Arnhold and S. Bleichroeder, Jim Rogers co-founded the Quantum Fund, a global investment partnership. Over the next 10 years, the value of the Quantum Fund portfolio increased by more than 4200%, while the growth of the Standard & Poor's 500 index over this period was approximately 47%.

Never ask anyone how much he earns or how much someone's thing costs. Never tell anyone how much your things cost. Never discuss your income and savings with anyone. My parents and grandparents taught me this rule as part of good manners. Prove your worth by deeds, not by talking about money.

At the age of 37, Jim Rogers decided to leave the foundation. He currently manages his own portfolio, teaches finance at Columbia University's Graduate School of Business, and is a regular commentator and columnist for various media.

Jim Rogers - Guinness World Record holder

In 1990, Jim Rogers went on a motorcycle trip, traveling over 100,000 miles (160,000 km) across six continents and making it into the Guinness Book of Records. He talks about his travels and international investments in the 1994 book Around the World with Jim Rogers: Investment Biker.

From January 1, 1999 to January 5, 2002, Jim Rogers made another trip through 116 countries, driving 245,000 kilometers with his wife Paige Parker in a custom made yellow Mercedes. This trip also made it into the Guinness Book of Records. The trip began in Iceland, where they celebrated the 1000th anniversary of Leif Eriksson's first trip to America, he crossed Europe, the former Soviet Union, China, Africa, the Middle East and the Americas, visiting countries that rarely attract tourists, including Myanmar, Angola, Sudan, Congo, Colombia, East Timor and others. On January 5, 2002, they returned to New York.

In a hundred years there will probably be about three hundred or four hundred countries in the world, that is, twice as many as now.

He described his adventures in the book "Adventure Capitalist: The Ultimate Road Trip", which became a bestseller. "Adventure Capitalist" is a story of travel and adventure filled with deep feelings and subtle humor, and, in addition, a very exciting overview of world economic geography with excursions into the investment attractiveness of countries and regions. In the book, Jim Rogers presents his own opinion about which country will grow and which will collapse, where you can find a million, and where you can lose it. In addition to the conclusions that a “bullish” trend is forming in commodity markets, and that the 21st century belongs to China, traveling the world, Rogers made a number of other observations and forecasts.

Since 2002, Jim Rogers has been a regular guest on Fox News' Cavuto on Business, which airs every Saturday.

In December 2007, Jim Rogers sold his New York mansion for approximately $16 million and moved to Singapore. Rogers claims he moved because there was a tipping point in the investment potential of Asian markets: “If you were smart in 1807, then move to London, if you were smart in 1907, then move to New York, and if you are smart in 2007, then move to Asia”. He did not want to move to Chinese cities like Hong Kong or Shanghai because of the bad environmental situation, so he chose Singapore. However, Jim Rogers is not optimistic about all Asian nations and is skeptical about the future of India.

Probably the best advice for anyone anywhere in the world is this: if you have children or grandchildren, make sure they learn Chinese. For their generation, Chinese and English will be the main languages ​​of international communication.

A Bull in China: Investing Profitably in the World's Greatest Market.

We also suggest watching a video interview with Jim Rogers

22.03.2018 14:54

Celebrity investor Jim Rogers is predicting the worst stock market bear of his life, and a trade war could make things worse, Bloomberg writes.

20.06.2017 22:46

Foreign investors have become the main buyers of the new issue of Russian Eurobonds. The Ministry of Finance of the Russian Federation placed sovereign Eurobonds with a maturity of 10 and 30 years for a total of $3 billion.

01.06.2017 12:27

The well-known American investor Jim Rogers announced a high potential interest of investors in Russian bonds.

13.04.2017 21:39

The well-known American investor Jim Rogers has significantly increased his portfolio of investments in Russia over the past few years and believes that the Russian market has great prospects.

24.03.2017 18:59

Well-known American investor Jim Rogers criticized the US monetary authorities, and also stated that, in his opinion, over the past few years, Russia's investment attractiveness has grown markedly and he has made good money on his investments.

23.03.2017 21:14

American investor Jim Rogers said in the "Course of the Day" program that he expects oil prices to fall.

23.03.2017 21:02

American investor Jim Rogers in the program "Course of the Day" said that he received a record high profit from investments in Russian assets.

13.02.2017 14:30

Well-known American investor Jim Rogers named the main challenges facing the global economy. Jim Rogers, the owner of Rogers Holdings, predicts a downturn in financial markets and the exit of global players from the market.

30.08.2016 00:13

Famous investor, founder of the legendary hedge fund Quantum, Jim Rogers made one of the most daring moves by betting on the North Korean currency.

12.04.2016 16:14

"Veteran" of the investment market, former partner of George Soros in the Quantum fund Jim Rogers is considering investing in the Russian oil company Bashneft and the diamond mining company ALROSA.

29.03.2016 08:24

Negative interest rates, the printing press running at full capacity - the Bank of Japan seems to be doing everything to support the economy, and the regulator's leadership firmly believes that desperate monetary stimulus should pay off.

22.03.2016 08:26

Russian government bonds have been showing good dynamics lately, and many are talking about demand from non-residents. It turns out that well-known investor Jim Rogers also invested in them, writes Bloomberg.

18.05.2015 17:34

Well-known American businessman and investor Jim Rogers believes that in many regions of the world real wars can begin over water, which is now becoming an increasingly valuable resource.

05.05.2015 19:15

Jim Rogers, a well-known American investor, said that he continues to buy shares of Russian companies, and also called for investments in other countries under pressure from the West.

06.04.2015 18:19

American billionaire Jim Rogers, a former partner of George Soros, announced the continuation of the purchase of large blocks of Russian shares, which occupy one of the largest shares in his investment portfolio. It is reported by Reuters.

26.12.2014 23:51

The well-known American investor Jim Rogers, who began his career with George Soros, noted that one of the main events of the year was the provocation of Russia by the United States in Ukraine, as well as an agreement with Saudi Arabia to collapse oil.

08.12.2014 14:12

People constantly ask me what to invest in, and I always answer the same way: don't listen to me, don't listen to anyone at all.

02.12.2014 12:04

The Russian economy is not far from its bottom. And when there will be an opportunity for growth, it is not yet clear. Jim Rogers thinks so. Nevertheless, a well-known investor buys shares in Russian companies and keeps part of his savings in rubles.

(James beeland Rogers, Jr.) is a successful international investor. Born October 19, 1942 in Demopolis, Olabama. Currently lives in Singapore.

• Education - Oxford and Yale.
• Together with George Soros, one of the founders of the Quantum Fund (+4200% in 10 years).
• At 37, he retired, managed his own portfolio, and lectured on finance at the graduate school of Columbia University.
• 1989-1990 TV moderator on The Dreyfus Roundtable (WCBS) and Drive to Profit with Jim Rogers (FNN).
• 1990-1992 ridden >100,000 miles on a motorcycle on 6 continents, hitting the Guinness Book of Records.
• Made a trip around the world, spending 1101 days, also got into the Guinness Book of Records.

Rogers entered the market in 1970.
I bought put options with all the money and successfully "tripled".
Two months later, Rogers went bankrupt, again shorting shares of weak companies. All the companies shorted by Rogers went bankrupt after 5 years, but Rogers went bankrupt even earlier.
Established a commodity fund in August 1998.

Jim Rogers and his trademark bow tie
According to Rogers, a bow tie is much more practical than a regular tie. “They're cheaper than long ties, plus it's almost impossible to get dirty. For example, you can't spill soup on him."

Quotes and Investment Philosophy by Jim Rogers
Rogers loves commodities because demand is always growing and supply is limited. If the economy slows down, then central banks print money, and this still leads to higher commodity prices. "Whatever happens in the economy, investing in commodities will always be justified."

“As a rule, I don’t invest in what others invest in”
“Usually I find something very cheap that makes a positive difference and I buy it.”

“I always have better reasons for buying shares than the innate sense of contradiction that is attributed to me”

“If the vast majority of investors have shares in a company, there are practically no ones left who will buy them. And when negative changes occur in the market, it is time to sell securities. But to whom?

"Efficient market theory is utter nonsense. It takes people a certain amount of time to realize what is happening ... And while they do, the market is also changing, which people do not understand simply because they do not understand a deeper reality. So I need to come up with a way to account for incomplete understanding people of what is actually happening."

“When I give lectures to students, I tell them that it would be useful for each of us to lose everything once or twice in our lives ... The main thing is that this happens to you in your youth. Besides, it would be better if the cost of your mistake was five thousand, not five million.

Books by Jim Rogers:

1995: Investment Biker: Around the World with Jim Rogers.
2003: Adventure Capitalist: The Ultimate Road Trip.
2004: Hot Commodities: How Anyone Can Invest Profitably in the World's Best Market.
2007: A Bull in China: Investing Profitably in the World's Greatest Market. - 2009: A Gift to My Children: A Father's Lessons For Life And Investing.

Sources:
Bob Sellers, Forbes: From miscalculations to breakthroughs. 30 lessons from great business leaders.