Mortality and average life expectancy. Average life expectancy in Russia. Why Russia has a low life expectancy
The mortality rate of the population is directly related to such an important demographic indicator as life expectancy, which is determined by natural, socio-economic, socio-political, environmental, household factors, and also depends on the lifestyle of people and the effectiveness of the functioning of health care institutions. Life span - the number of years lived by a person from the date of birth to the day of death. In demography, indicators of real, probabilistic and expected life expectancy are distinguished.
The life expectancy of the population is calculated as the average number of years lived by residents of the country who have died over a certain period, usually a year. Indicator real life expectancy of the population calculated on the basis of statistical data on the age structure of the population at the beginning of the year. However, demographers pay special attention to the concept of "probabilistic life expectancy", which in the XVII century. was introduced by the English mathematician E. Halley. He also calculated life expectancy people at different ages to determine the dependence of the insurance rent on the age of the probabilistic life expectancy of a person. To calculate the value of life expectancy, special mortality tables are used, which show the average age to which people born in a given calendar year can live if the age-specific mortality rates characteristic of their year of birth remain unchanged throughout their lives.
The first mortality tables were proposed by the Englishman J. Graunt. Nowadays in English they are called life tables - life tables. Mortality tables show how the generation of people born in the same year gradually decreases with increasing age as a result of deaths. Mortality tables can be constructed for different age intervals (one year, five or 10 years) for men and women, urban and rural population. Complete tables of mortality of the Russian population are calculated by Rosstat up to the age of 10 (1 years. Mortality tables serve as the basis for calculating the indicators of population reproduction, its aging and forecasts of the size of the population of working age.
The value of life expectancy for different ages of men and women is not the same and decreases with increasing age. The positive difference between the indicators of the expected and real life expectancy of the population indicates a decrease in mortality and an improvement in the living conditions of people. A decrease in mortality and an increase in the real life expectancy of the population depend on the ecological state environment, the level and way of life of the people, the efficiency of the work of sanitary and medical services. According to scientists' calculations, over the past 160 years, the real life expectancy has been increasing by three months annually. At the same time, for people with higher education, it is higher than for uneducated people by about six years. For men with a high index of 10, life expectancy is higher, while for women it is vice versa.
The highest indicator of real life expectancy in the USSR for men (64.9 years) and women (74.6 years) was recorded in 1987. Some experts associate an increase in the average life expectancy of Soviet people in 1985-1987. with the results of the anti-alcohol campaign carried out during these years. However, from 1988 to 1994, the real life expectancy of the population of Russia sharply decreased. In 1994, this indicator for men was 57.6 years, and for women - 71.2. In 1998, Russia ranked 114th among 174 countries in the world in terms of real life expectancy for men, and 76th for women.
Over the next years, there has been a tendency towards an increase in the real life expectancy of Russians. So, in 1998 this indicator for men was 61.3 years, for women - 72.9. However, in 2000, a decrease in the real life expectancy of Russians was again recorded: for men - up to 59 years, for women - up to 72.2. At the beginning of the XXI century. the highest indicators of real life expectancy in Russia were established in Moscow and the republics of the North Caucasus, and the lowest in the Republic of Tyva (51 years for men, 66 years for women). In 2003, a decrease in the real life expectancy of Russians was again recorded: for men - up to 58.8 years, for women - up to 72. According to the UN, in 2004, Russia was ranked 119th in terms of real life expectancy for men, and women - 85th place among 175 countries of the world. Indicators of real life expectancy of men and women in different countries in 2013 are presented in table. 8.5.
Table 8.5. Indicators of real life expectancy of people in the world, years
For many years, Russia has had the largest gap in the world between the life expectancy of men and women.
So, in 1997, for the entire population of the planet, this gap was 4.2 years in favor of women, while in Russia it was 12.2 years. The smallest gap in life expectancy for men and women - 0.1 years - occurs in Bangladesh. The excess of male life expectancy over female life expectancy is observed in Nepal. Today, life expectancy in Russia is less than in economically developed countries: for men - by an average of 10-15 years, for women - by 6-8 years.
In 2013, the life expectancy of men in Russia reached 66.1 years against 58.6 years in 2003; the life expectancy of women increased to 73.1 years against 71.8 years in 2003. The increase in comparison with 2003 was 5.8 years for men and 4.3 years for women. As a result, the difference in life expectancy between men and women decreased to 11.8 years (in 2003 it was 13.3 years, and in 1994 - 13.7 years). However, this difference in life expectancy for men and women is still very significant compared to most countries in the world. Despite the continuing growth in male life expectancy in Russia, its value in 2013 remained lower than in the mid-1960s and 1980s.
According to the Minister of Health of the Russian Federation V. I. Skvortsova, in 2014 the average life expectancy in Russia "increased by almost a year and amounted to 71.6 years" (Arguments and Facts. 2014. No. 46). According to statistical data in Russia, the highest average life expectancy in 2014 was noted in the Republic of Ingushetia - 78 years, in Moscow - 76, in the Republic of Dagestan - 75, in St. Petersburg, in the republics of Kabardino-Balkaria, Karachay-Cherkessia, North Ossetia - 74 years, in the Chechen Republic - 73, in the Krasnodar and Stavropol Territories, Khanty-Mansi Autonomous Okrug - 72 years. The lowest average life expectancy was recorded in the Republic of Tyva - 61 years, in Chukotka - 62, in the Jewish Autonomous Region - 64, in the Nenets Autonomous Okrug - 65 years.
In 1990, the UN published the Human Development Report, which proposed a special socio-demographic indicator - human development index, which is calculated on the basis of three dimensions: life expectancy, educational attainment and living standards. According to calculations, at present, the human development index in the United States is 0.91 (4th place in the world), in Russia - 0.75 (66th place in the world).
A variety of media outlets have systematically reported a steady decline in life expectancy. Indicators, I must say, are not encouraging. A particularly low figure is called for men - 57-59 years. Elderly people, after becoming acquainted with such indicators, should feel that their life span has already been exhausted.
First of all, it should be noted that the given values refer to the demographic indicator, the full and correct name of which is - average life expectancy. Expected or inferred, but in no way limited to the specified number of years for each person, nor guaranteed. Statistics do not predict or promise a certain life expectancy. The calculation of the indicator is based on the theory of probability, the construction of mortality tables and is calculated as the ratio between the number of deaths at certain ages at a certain moment. This point is usually the year before the year in which the count is being made. The published indicators do not refer to the life expectancy of people who have already lived some part of their lives, but only to newborns or those born in a given year, and then provided that the mortality rates in their future life remain the same as in the reference year.
For each age, its own indicators are calculated. For example, the demographic reference book "World Population" reports that the average life expectancy of men in the 80s. was 64-65 years old, but for those who reached this age, the expected duration was another 12.5 years (that is, up to 76-78 years old), while those over 75 years old had a chance to live another 7-10 years ... Even 100-year-olds are left hoping to live at least one or two more years.
For newborns, the named figure of life expectancy (for short - life expectancy) is not obligatory, because during the life of a new generation it will undergo significant changes, either upward under favorable circumstances, or, on the contrary, will decrease. This indicator characterizes expected, the probable lifespan not of an individual, but of the entire generation as a whole. This is not the average age of those living, nor is it the average age of those who die in a particular year. So statements like: “Men now live with us for only 57 years” are absolutely incorrect.
It should be noted that since this indicator is of a probabilistic nature, it is possible that there is a variety in the numerical expression of the value for different authors, which is explained by the discrepancies in the calculation methods they have chosen. Twenty years ago, there were a lot of forecasts for 2000, including those concerning life expectancy, and on this problem, perhaps, more judgments were made than about all other parameters of society.
If we compare the numbers that sounded then with those of today, they are strikingly different from each other. At the same time, the correction was going downward all the time. So, gerontologist V. V. Frolkis in his book Aging and Life Extension, published in 1988, he wrote: “Demographers are not united in their forecasts. B. Ts. Urlanis believes that the average life expectancy in our country by 2000 will reach 76 years. Other data are cited by M.S.Bedny. According to his "optimistic version", the average life expectancy of men in 2000 will be equal to 77.4, women - 80.3 years. AV Boyarsky at the international congress of demographers determined the average life expectancy in 2000, equal to 85 years. Now, when there is very little left until 2000, the unreality of such predictions has become visible, life has made negative adjustments. Not only domestic researchers were mistaken, but also UN experts, who predicted the average life expectancy in the USSR by 2000 - 74.6 years.
To finally clarify and try to allay the fears generated by thoughtless use of scientific information, here is a strict definition of average life expectancy:
Average life expectancy is the number of years that a given generation of births (peers of a certain age) will have to live on average, provided that throughout the subsequent life in each age group the mortality rate will be the same as it was in the population of this age in years of compilation of the mortality table.
And one more important remark. Life expectancy should not be confused with the median age of deaths, that is, the age at which the maximum number of deaths occurs in a given generation. The average age of the deceased depends on the age structure of the population: it is clear that in the structure of type B the average age of the deceased will be much higher than in the structure of type A.
Within the framework of the UN Program, the Human Development Index has been developed, or, as journalists dubbed it, "index happiness ". Its creation is an attempt to redefine the concept of economic growth (development for people, not people for development). Both the calculation of the index and the index itself have caused a lot of controversy. But what is important for our conversation is that it is calculated on the basis of three indicators: gross national (or domestic) product per capita, education level and life expectancy at birth.
In accordance with this index, more than 170 countries of the world were analyzed, a table was compiled; Russia took 37th place. The table shows that life expectancy is very different across countries and continents. In most European countries and in the USA it is 76-77 years, in Japan this figure is even higher - 79-82 years, in a number of other countries it fluctuates between 42-45 years. These are Guinea-Bissau, Zambia, Afghanistan, etc. It is indicative that in countries with a low educational level, life expectancy is low. It depends, of course, not only on the level of education or the size of the per capita national product, but all these values are interconnected, the change in the value of one of them "pulls" the others. Life expectancy is determined by the interaction of socio-economic and political factors.
In the mid 60s. in Russia and in the United States, life expectancy was approximately the same. A significant gap has emerged in the past fifteen years. Paradoxically but with a shorter life expectancy, the share of older people in the total population in Russia is higher than in the United States.
Changes in average life expectancy (in years) in Russia and the United States can be seen from the following table:
| 1989 | 1993 | 1995 | |
| Russia | 70 | 69 | 64 |
| USA | 74 | 76 | 76 |
According to data from the newsletter "Population and Society" (No. 7, 1995), in 1995 the average life expectancy (in years) in European countries was:
As can be seen from the table, the life expectancy of Russian women is lower than European values, but higher than world ones, while for Russian men this indicator is lower than both European and world ones.
According to recent studies, the differences in life expectancy are especially significant for men in the two countries: for Russians - 57-58 years; Americans are 73-74 years old.
Life expectancy at birth by regions of Russia (expected) for 2015 (Update 2019)
A list of Russian regions by life expectancy is presented: both sexes, men and women for 2015.
The highest life expectancy in Russia at birth for both sexes is in the Republic of Ingushetia - 80.05 years, then the city of Moscow - 76.77 years and the Republic of Dagestan - 76.39 years. Source: Rosstat.
Among men in Russia, the highest life expectancy at birth is in the Republic of Ingushetia - 76.51 years, then the Republic of Dagestan - 73.18 years (+1 position compared to last year) and the city of Moscow - 72.96 years (-1 position in compared to last year).
Among women, the leader in terms of life expectancy (expected) is the Republic of Ingushetia - 83.02 years, then the city of Moscow 80.36 and the Republic of Dagestan 79.47 years.
In Russia as a whole, life expectancy (expected) is71.39 years male65.92 and in women76.71 years.
The difference between men and women (in Russia as a whole): 10.79 years, that is, on average (according to the calculated data on life expectancy) women live longer than men in Russia by 10.79 g.
Minimum difference in Chechen Republic - 6.09 g., C Republic of Ingushetia- 6.51 g and Republic of Dagestan - 6.51 g.
The maximum difference in life expectancy between women and men inOryol region - 12.87 years.
Among the Federal Districts, the leader isNorth CaucasianFederal district with indicator 74.63 years, both sexes.
Operational information for 2019
New from 10/16/2019:
According to the media (according to:
"For eight months of this year, an increase in life expectancy was recorded to 73.6 years on average - by 0.7 years compared to 2018. For women, the average life expectancy exceeded 78.5 years. This happened due to an additional saving of 34 thousand. The overall mortality rate per 1,000 people decreased by 3.1% compared to the same indicator in 2018. "
New from 09/04/2019:According to the media (according toHead of the Ministry of Health Veronika Skvortsova): " In Russia, life expectancy for women increased to 78.5 years in seven months of 2019, and for men - up to 68.5 years. "the rate of increase in the life expectancy of Russians exceeds the world indicators. "" To live longer and stay healthy, you need to engage in disease prevention. "
Operational information for 2018
New from 04.24.2019:According to the media (according toHead of the Ministry of Health Veronika Skvortsova)“In 2018, life expectancy in Russia reached its historical maximum, having increased for men by 0.3 years, for women by 0.2 years and averaged 72.9 years,” the minister said.
According to the media from 04/12/2018:according to the report of the Ministry of Health " According to the results of 2017, life expectancy in Russia increased to 72.7 years, and mortality in the country decreased. "In 2017, life expectancy was 72.7 years (an increase of 0.83 years compared to 2016 - 71.87 years)." "The increase in life expectancy affected both men and women. Men: 67.51 years (an increase of 1.01 years compared to 2016), women: 77.64 years (an increase of 0.58 years compared to 2016) ".
According to the media from 07.12.2017: according toMinister of Health of Russia:"In incomplete 2017, the life expectancy of Russians reached a national historical [maximum] of 72.6 years. At the same time, since 2005, life expectancy in the Russian Federation has increased by an average of 7.2 years. For men, by 8.6 years, among women - for five years. "
Life expectancy in Russia and the countries of the world at this ... For the summary table for 2014, see .
Expected table life expectancy in 2015
| № | Subject of Russia | Both genders ↓ | Men | Women | F - M |
| 1 | The Republic of Ingushetia | 80,05 | 76,51 | 83,02 | 6,51 |
| 2 | Moscow city | 76,77 | 72,96 | 80,36 | 7,40 |
| 3 | The Republic of Dagestan | 76,39 | 73,18 | 79,47 | 6,29 |
| North Caucasian Federal District | 74,63 | 70,42 | 78,55 | 8,13 | |
| 4 | Kabardino-Balkarian Rep. | 74,61 | 69,82 | 79,10 | 9,28 |
| 5 | Karachay-Cherkess Republic | 74,44 | 69,94 | 78,66 | 8,72 |
| 6 | St. Petersburg | 74,42 | 69,83 | 78,38 | 8,55 |
| 7 | Rep. North Ossetia Alania | 74,20 | 68,62 | 79,42 | 10,80 |
| 8 | Chechen Republic | 73,45 | 70,35 | 76,44 | 6,09 |
| 9 | Stavropol region | 73,36 | 68,61 | 77,82 | 9,21 |
| 10 | Republic of Tatarstan | 72,81 | 67,05 | 78,38 | 11,33 |
| Central Federal District | 72,72 | 67,49 | 77,71 | 10,22 | |
| 11 | Belgorod region | 72,61 | 67,33 | 77,73 | 10,40 |
| 12 | Khanty-Mansi Autonomous Okrug-Yugra | 72,58 | 67,57 | 77,47 | 9,90 |
| 13 | Krasnodar region | 72,53 | 67,55 | 77,35 | 9,80 |
| 14 | Moscow region | 72,26 | 67,05 | 77,12 | 10,07 |
| 15 | Republic of Adygea | 72,22 | 66,88 | 77,51 | 10,63 |
| 16 | Republic of Kalmykia | 72,15 | 67,01 | 77,31 | 10,30 |
| Southern Federal District (since 2010) | 72,13 | 67,05 | 77,06 | 10,01 | |
| 17 | Penza region | 72,12 | 66,47 | 77,58 | 11,11 |
| 18 | The Republic of Mordovia | 72,06 | 66,49 | 77,54 | 11,05 |
| 19 | Volgograd region | 71,98 | 66,68 | 77,13 | 10,45 |
| 20 | Rostov region | 71,90 | 66,90 | 76,73 | 9,83 |
| 21 | Tyumen region | 71,76 | 66,47 | 77,01 | 10,54 |
| 22 | Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous District | 71,70 | 66,90 | 76,37 | 9,47 |
| Northwestern Federal District | 71,70 | 66,28 | 76,83 | 10,55 | |
| 23 | Voronezh region | 71,67 | 65,66 | 77,70 | 12,04 |
| 24 | Tambov Region | 71,67 | 65,90 | 77,51 | 11,61 |
| 25 | Ryazan Oblast | 71,46 | 65,72 | 77,08 | 11,36 |
| 26 | Saratov region | 71,40 | 65,83 | 76,78 | 10,95 |
| Russian Federation | 71,39 | 65,92 | 76,71 | 10,79 | |
| 27 | Astrakhan region | 71,36 | 66,10 | 76,58 | 10,48 |
| 28 | Chuvash Republic | 71,35 | 65,53 | 77,24 | 11,71 |
| 29 | Tomsk region | 71,25 | 65,94 | 76,46 | 10,52 |
| 30 | Leningrad region | 71,23 | 65,84 | 76,60 | 10,76 |
| 31 | Kirov region | 71,11 | 65,20 | 77,09 | 11,89 |
| 32 | Lipetsk region | 71,07 | 65,26 | 76,77 | 11,51 |
| 33 | Nenets Autonomous District | 71,00 | 65,22 | 76,90 | 11,68 |
| 34 | Yaroslavskaya oblast | 70,98 | 64,95 | 76,69 | 11,74 |
| 35 | Novosibirsk region | 70,86 | 65,08 | 76,60 | 11,52 |
| 36 | Kursk region | 70,80 | 64,81 | 76,78 | 11,97 |
| 37 | Kaluga region | 70,73 | 65,13 | 76,28 | 11,15 |
| 38 | Arkhangelsk region | 70,71 | 64,85 | 76,60 | 11,75 |
| Volga Federal District | 70,71 | 64,83 | 76,55 | 11,72 | |
| 39 | Ivanovo region | 70,62 | 64,71 | 76,14 | 11,43 |
| 40 | Kaliningrad region | 70,58 | 65,50 | 75,40 | 9,90 |
| 41 | Ulyanovsk region | 70,46 | 64,50 | 76,45 | 11,95 |
| 42 | Udmurtia | 70,46 | 64,24 | 76,64 | 12,40 |
| 43 | Altai region | 70,44 | 64,97 | 75,84 | 10,87 |
| 44 | Omsk region | 70,41 | 64,56 | 76,17 | 11,61 |
| 45 | Vologodskaya Oblast | 70,40 | 64,38 | 76,47 | 12,09 |
| 46 | Kostroma region | 70,38 | 64,94 | 75,68 | 10,74 |
| 47 | Oryol Region | 70,38 | 63,96 | 76,83 | 12,87 |
| Ural Federal District | 70,38 | 64,55 | 76,15 | 11,60 | |
| 48 | Bryansk region | 70,36 | 64,32 | 76,37 | 12,05 |
| 49 | Samara Region | 70,35 | 64,34 | 76,28 | 11,94 |
| 50 | The Republic of Sakha (Yakutia) | 70,29 | 64,94 | 75,84 | 10,90 |
| 51 | Murmansk region | 70,24 | 64,48 | 75,72 | 11,24 |
| 52 | Nizhny Novgorod Region | 70,17 | 64,05 | 76,14 | 12,09 |
| 53 | Republic of Bashkortostan | 70,08 | 64,31 | 76,03 | 11,72 |
| 54 | Tula region | 70,06 | 64,01 | 76,01 | 12,00 |
| 55 | Chelyabinsk region | 69,90 | 63,94 | 75,75 | 11,81 |
| 56 | Sverdlovsk region | 69,83 | 63,75 | 75,83 | 12,08 |
| 57 | Vladimir region | 69,82 | 63,86 | 75,59 | 11,73 |
| 58 | Mari El Republic | 69,80 | 63,52 | 76,36 | 12,84 |
| 59 | Smolensk region | 69,74 | 64,08 | 75,34 | 11,26 |
| 60 | Krasnoyarsk region | 69,69 | 64,01 | 75,34 | 11,33 |
| 61 | Orenburg region | 69,63 | 63,87 | 75,47 | 11,60 |
| 62 | Komi Republic | 69,40 | 63,26 | 75,66 | 12,40 |
| Siberian Federal District | 69,31 | 63,59 | 75,02 | 11,43 | |
| 63 | Primorsky Krai | 69,21 | 64,04 | 74,58 | 10,54 |
| 64 | Republic of Karelia | 69,16 | 62,86 | 75,50 | 12,64 |
| 65 | The Republic of Buryatia | 69,15 | 63,73 | 74,54 | 10,81 |
| 66 | Tver region | 69,10 | 63,33 | 74,85 | 11,52 |
| 67 | Perm Territory | 69,09 | 63,08 | 75,09 | 12,01 |
| 68 | Kurgan region | 69,03 | 62,82 | 75,51 | 12,69 |
| 69 | Khabarovsk region | 68,72 | 63,21 | 74,36 | 11,15 |
| 70 | Novgorod region | 68,70 | 62,47 | 74,93 | 12,46 |
| 71 | The Republic of Khakassia | 68,68 | 63,40 | 73,83 | 10,43 |
| Far Eastern Federal District | 68,68 | 63,28 | 74,35 | 11,07 | |
| 72 | Kamchatka Krai | 68,56 | 63,26 | 74,41 | 11,15 |
| 73 | Pskov region | 68,48 | 62,78 | 74,27 | 11,49 |
| 74 | Altai Republic | 68,44 | 62,82 | 74,19 | 11,37 |
| 75 | Kemerovo region | 68,31 | 62,32 | 74,32 | 12,00 |
| 76 | Magadan Region | 68,11 | 63,17 | 73,42 | 10,25 |
| 77 | Sakhalin Region | 67,99 | 62,35 | 74,07 | 11,72 |
| 78 | Irkutsk region | 67,37 | 61,31 | 73,48 | 12,17 |
| 79 | Transbaikal region | 67,34 | 61,92 | 73,03 | 11,11 |
| 80 | Amur region | 67,27 | 61,64 | 73,26 | 11,62 |
| 81 | Jewish Auth. region | 65,04 | 59,12 | 71,47 | 12,35 |
| 82 | Chukotka Autonomous Region | 64,16 | 59,35 | 69,69 | 10,34 |
| 83 | Tyva Republic | 63,13 | 58,05 | 68,29 | 10,24 |
To manage social and economic processes in society and conduct an effective and well-founded policy at the state and regional level, it is necessary to have accurate data on the size, structure and movement of the population.
Demographic statistics: goals and objectives
In fact, the development of the economy, the creation of new production facilities and an increase in the standard of living is impossible without a high population. A country in which the death rate constantly exceeds the birth rate is literally doomed to gradual degradation and extinction. That is why the main goal of the demographic policy of any state is to maintain a high level of constant population growth.
The main tasks of demographers are: monitoring the population according to census data, RVD and registry office records; study of the composition of the population by sex and age; calculation of indicators of the natural movement of the population.
Based on the statistical data obtained, an analysis is carried out, the main demographic indicators are calculated and the directions of activities to maintain the population level are determined.
Life expectancy indicators
Two hundred years ago, the average life span of a person did not exceed 35-40 years. In Pushkin's Russia, a woman who had just celebrated her thirtieth birthday was already a real old woman, and a man over fifty was considered a deep old man. Over the years, the situation has changed significantly, but the main goal of the society is still to achieve maximum duration.
The life span of one particular person is the time interval between his birth and death, that is, the age at the time of his death. To determine the length of life of the entire population as a whole, demographic science adopted the indicator "average life expectancy". This is the number of years that one person from the analyzed generation can live, on average, provided that throughout the existence of a given individual, mortality in a particular age group remains unchanged.
This indicator is usually calculated both for all newborns (in this case, it is called “average life expectancy at birth”), and for subjects who have reached certain age parameters.
In any case, when calculating the coefficients, it is necessary to use the statistics presented in the mortality tables.
Life expectancy calculation
In demographic science, there are several options for life expectancy:
- individual;
- species;
- average.
Individual life span is calculated for the entire human species as a whole, and its maximum value is 113-116 years, since this is precisely the age of the oldest centenarians.
Species life expectancy is the number of years that any person can live under favorable conditions. In the modern world, this figure is 95 years old. That is how much any individual who does not have chronic diseases and leads a healthy lifestyle can live. This indicator is considered the limit for the next parameter.
It is the calculation of the average life span that is the most correct method for assessing the state of the population. The higher this indicator, the better the social and ecological situation in the surveyed area.
Life expectancy is calculated as the average age for the sample under study. This value is directly related to another important parameter - life expectancy.
Factors affecting life expectancy
Life expectancy depends on many different factors, among which social and economic indicators, as well as ecology, play a special role. In general, the length of a human life is directly proportional to the standard of living in the country and the amount of income of its population. Thus, the absolute record holders for longevity were born in countries where the average salary is about $ 36 thousand per year. Other important parameters are the stable situation in the country and the availability of fresh vegetables and fruits.
A good ecological situation in the country is also a significant factor in determining the expected life expectancy of its population, but in reality the significance of this indicator, in comparison with the social aspect, is somewhat overestimated. For example, recent studies of the life expectancy of individuals employed in work with radioactive substances (NPP workers, employees of institutes engaged in nuclear physics) have shown that it is slightly higher than that of other categories of the population. This is due precisely to the additional social preferences allocated to these individuals.
Indicator value for developed countries
Throughout the world, with the gradual development of civilization, there is a general tendency towards a constant increase in the value of the average life length. So, in most developed countries this indicator reaches 75 years or more.
The residents of modern Japan, Andorra and France, where the expected length of time from birth to death reaches eighty-three years, have the greatest chances of living to the very old age. Naturally, this value is in direct proportion to the quality of life. Therefore, the constant development of modern medicine and the growth of incomes of the population lead to the fact that scientists started talking about the possibility of increasing the average life expectancy in developed countries up to 120 years. Such forecasts pose a challenge for demographers to rethink the very essence of the concept of “old age”.
In general, the change in the age composition of the population of developed countries in favor of the older group is the main trend of the last decade. Thus, in 1998, the number of people over sixty-five years old for the first time exceeded the number of children born.
The process of gradual aging of the population is also characteristic of the entire world community as a whole. Despite the decline in the death rate and the constant increase in the birth rate, scientists predict that by 2045 the average age of a person will shift from 30-35 years old and move to 40-47 years. In connection with such statistical summaries, indicating a gradual decrease in the number of the working-age population, it can be assumed that the average retirement age will also change upward.
Indicator values for developing countries
In contrast to developed countries, in only developing countries, the average life expectancy across countries is relatively low. So, for most of them, this indicator is at around 67 full years. In the least developed regions, it can be equal to 58 years.
Despite this, it should be noted that, in general, over the past sixty years, there has been a sharp jump in the length of life on the entire planet as a whole. So, back only in 1950, it was only thirty-six years old.
Among the developing countries, the new industrial states of Latin America and Asia, as well as rich African countries-exporters of oil and oil products, stand out with the highest life expectancy among the developing countries. The island settlements of the Caribbean are also considered prosperous, where the standard of living and the amount of income per individual are comparable to those of some developed countries.
But outsiders in terms of life expectancy are the countries of the southern region of Africa. Here, the mortality rate is many times higher than the world average, which is explained to the extreme by the low general standard of living, frequent military and political conflicts and low quality of medical care.
As far as the age structure of the population of developing countries is concerned, here, in contrast to developed countries, the progressive type prevails. Most of these states are characterized by a structure with an extended type of population reproduction, that is, the number of children and adolescents in them is much higher than the number of people of retirement age. This feature is associated with the high level of infant mortality, which is still characteristic of many underdeveloped countries. Infant deaths and deaths are highest in children between the ages of one and three years.
At the same time, not all developing countries are able to cope with such a rapid population growth, which leads to the emergence of a “demographic containment” policy, when the state legislates a restriction on the number of children in one family. So, until the end of 2011 in China there was a limit for one child, and in India, local residents were asked to stay with two children.
Average life expectancy in Russia
Throughout the entire historical period, the average length of life in Russia has tended to abruptly change. So, until the end of the nineteenth century, this parameter was equal to thirty years of life for men and thirty-two for women. Since the beginning of the twentieth century, despite constant cataclysms, epidemics and wars, the number and average life expectancy of men and women in Russia has been constantly growing. Soviet medicine played a special role in this matter. Thanks to its scale and planned checks on the civilian population, the Soviet Union managed to significantly increase life expectancy and reach values typical for developed European states. The subsequent anti-alcohol campaign only completed what it had begun, and by 1960-1965 the life expectancy of Soviet people reached sixty-five years for men and seventy-five for women.
The subsequent years of perestroika and "shock therapy" hit these indicators seriously. The birth rate fell, the mortality rate of the population increased significantly, and there was a sharp jump in child mortality. Thus, by the beginning of the 2000s, the average life expectancy for men was fifty-eight years, and for women - seventy-one years.
At the present stage, the situation is gradually beginning to improve. So, in 2010, for the first time, the natural population decline was stopped, that is, the number of births exceeded the number of deaths. Recent government reforms, the allocation of additional subsidies to young and large families and improved living conditions have led to the fact that the average life expectancy in Russia is kept at around sixty-six years for men and seventy-six years for women.
Distribution of the indicator by region
So far we have been talking about such a concept as the average life expectancy in Russia. As for the value of the indicator in different regions of the country, the situation here is ambiguous. The lowest was recorded in the Chukotka Autonomous Okrug, the Tyva Republic and the Jewish Autonomous Region. Here, the life of an ordinary Russian does not exceed sixty-three years.
Life expectancy in Moscow is quite expectedly in the top three. Capital residents live ten years longer than the main outsiders. For St. Petersburg, which is one of the ten most prosperous regions, life expectancy is also approximately seventy-one years.
However, the most interesting is the fact that the greatest average life expectancy is a characteristic feature of the inhabitants of the republics of Ingushetia and Dagestan. It is here that most of the population lives to be seventy-eight years old, which is even more than the average life expectancy in the United States.
In general, the statistics of life expectancy in Russia are disappointing. Only a few of the most prosperous regions stand out from the overall picture. For the majority, the average life span for men does not exceed sixty, and for women - seventy-three years.
Average life expectancy in the CIS countries
According to the latest UN reports on world demographic statistics, the life expectancy of the world's population is growing steadily. So, just over the past 59 years, this indicator has increased by 15 years and reached 64 years for men and 68 for women. However, as far as the post-Soviet space is concerned, the situation here is completely disappointing.
The inhabitants of Armenia live the longest of the former Soviet republics. Here, the life expectancy of the male part of the population reaches 68.5 years, and the female part - 75. In second place is Georgia, where the population lives only 1.5 years less.
The average life expectancy in Ukraine is approximately equal to the Russian indicators and is 60.5 and 72.5 years. The worst is the situation in Kazakhstan and Armenia. But the average life expectancy in Belarus is 63 years for men and 74.4 years for women.
Thus, none of the countries that were previously part of the Soviet Union managed to achieve the average life expectancy characteristic of modern developed states.
Average life expectancy for men and women
The sex composition of the population is the ratio of the number of men and women operating in a particular state, which depends on a number of biological, social and historical reasons. For example, in the first post-war years, on the territory of all countries involved in the conflict, there was a significant preponderance of the number of women over the number of men. It is no coincidence that in the famous song it was sung that "according to statistics, there are nine guys for ten girls." In reality, this figure was even more disappointing. So, throughout the USSR, there were as many as two women for one sexually mature man.
Today the situation has changed significantly. For example, in the whole world, it is the male half of the population that predominates, especially many of the stronger sex live in Turkey, India and China. A similar state of affairs is associated with the historically disadvantaged position of women in these countries. The peculiarities of the mentality, early marriages and the frequent birth of children led to a low life expectancy and high mortality among women.
However, in most states the situation is the opposite. In Russia and Europe, the average life expectancy of a man is about 5-6 years less than that of a woman. This trend is associated with genetic and social predisposition. Women are less susceptible to infectious diseases, are less likely to suffer from alcoholism, are not inclined to take risks and are not so aggressive.
Introduction
Life expectancy for each specific person is the time interval between his birth and death, equal to the age of death. To determine the life expectancy of the entire population as a whole, demography adopted an indicator of the average life expectancy of a generation born in a given year. It is calculated on the basis of real mortality rates in each of the living generations, and shows the average age at which a given generation leaves life. Or, in other words, the average life expectancy per person in a given generation. Thus, this indicator is as close as possible to the definition of life expectancy as the period between birth and death, but it is calculated for the entire generation that appeared in a given year.
The purpose of this course work is to analyze the life expectancy of the population in the constituent entities of the Russian Federation.
Work tasks:
1. Study of various scientific and methodological literature on the research topic;
2. Search for information on the subjects of the Russian Federation, the formation of an array of initial data;
3. Grouping of subjects by life expectancy;
4. Characterization of a series of distribution using a system of indicators of the center and form of distribution, variation of a feature, differentiation.
5. Grouping of subjects of the Russian Federation on a territorial basis. Identification and measurement of the strength of the influence of a territorial feature on life expectancy.
The course work consists of an introduction, a main part consisting of two chapters, a conclusion and a bibliography.
Life expectancy studies
Average life expectancy as an object of statistical research
The average life expectancy of a person is the limit predetermined for the body by its biological characteristics, hereditary potencies and is largely determined by the conditions of life, work, rest and nutrition throughout life.
A complete list of the currently used life expectancy indicators is as follows:
Average life expectancy,
Probable life expectancy,
Normal life span,
Natural life expectancy,
W is the maximum life span.
Let's move on to the characteristics of each of the concepts.
Life expectancy, or life expectancy, shows the average number of years that each member of a given generation will have to live while maintaining existing mortality conditions. The value of the average life expectancy can be calculated for any age.
Average life expectancy is considered to be one of the most accurate statistical expressions of mortality conditions inherent in a given place and time. One can agree with this, especially when comparing indicators for a number of years, calculated for the same country or region.
The normal or modal life expectancy is considered the age at which the so-called second maximum of deaths falls, that is, the maximum deaths in older age (the first maximum is observed in newborns). Normal life expectancy is modal and corresponds to the age at which adults most often die.
Natural life expectancy is understood as the term assigned to man by nature. A person has a higher life expectancy than many other higher vertebrates. It has been proven that individual individuals of the human population live up to 110 years or more.
The maximum lifespan is the ideal value, the extreme deviation of the value from the average. The debate about what is currently the terms of the species (maximum) life expectancy - 110, 120 or 140 years - are centered around the interpretation of statistical data and individual facts about centenarians.
Life expectancy can serve as an important parameter for characterizing the viability of the population.
Average life expectancy shows how long people live, taking into account the fact that some die earlier, and others later than the period, which is determined by the value of the average life expectancy.
The average life expectancy in one number characterizes both the biological patterns of aging and death inherent in humans, and the role of social factors (the level and way of life, the development of health care, the achievements of medical science). Its value testifies to the efforts of the society aimed at preventing mortality and improving the health of the population.
In the literature, there are many different definitions of the average life expectancy of the population, which are similar in nature, but do not completely coincide. Therefore, it should be noted that within the framework of this work we will rely on the methodology of the Federal State Statistics Service, according to which the average life expectancy at birth is understood as the number of years that, on average, one person from some hypothetical generation who was born would have to live, provided that that throughout the life of this generation, the mortality rate at each age will remain the same as in the years for which this indicator is calculated.
Thus, the specificity of the average life expectancy of the population as an object of statistical research is that it is a generalizing characteristic of the socio-economic development of society and the mortality rate in all age groups of the population. Given this specificity, in our opinion, it is necessary to consider not only the dynamics and structure of life expectancy, but also the factors that are directly involved in the formation of its level.